Tuesday 7 August 2012

Does First have a future?

Bluestar have registered a new route, the 16, to run between the city centre and Townhill Park via Portswood from 30th September head-to-head with First 7:


This is most probably a response to the national corporate problems at First. First needs money, fast, and has said that it might be prepared to sell some of its bus operations around the country. It tried to sell its North Devon operation to Stagecoach, but after the Competition Commission stepped in, decided to just close it, leaving passengers there with a Stagecoach monopoly after all. Here in Southampton, First completely overhauled their network in April. Either it was in trouble locally and that was the last gasp, or they saw potential in the Southampton business and were seeking to streamline it, concentrating on building profitable routes, which could bag them a small fortune when they sell. Or just maybe they genuinely are interested in serving our city for the long term. Either way, a sale of First Southampton's local operations could well be on the cards and Bluestar going head-to-head on a route they've never served before is a message both to First and to anyone thinking of buying their local operations here: that they are ready to move in on First's routes and they will compete for them. This will surely reduce the price potential purchasers would be willing to pay for First Southampton, although would any interested parties seriously have expected Bluestar to just sit back while their biggest competitor changes hands? Go Ahead know what they are doing and the uncertainty around the future of First is an opportunity that they are clearly determined to exploit to the full. If First stays in the city, they will have a fight on their hands. If they sell, whoever buys will face heavy competition and would probably be left with a fraction of the current First network. If no-one is willing to buy and Bluestar's attacks intensify, could we eventually see First just deciding to close their Southampton operations? All we know at this stage is that nothing is certain, but it's going to be a very interesting few months.

In other news, the bus stop outside Asda on Portland Terrace in town is closed for 3 weeks. No buses are diverted, so you'll need to walk to either the previous or next stops for Bluestar 3, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 18, Brijan 7, Unilink U1 and U6, Salisbury Reds X7 and First 8, 8A, 8B and 9.

Stagecoach 69 has some minor timetable changes from 2nd September.

Solent Travelcard has put its prices up. It now costs £7.50 a day or £30 a week. Their website is unprofessionally still displaying the old prices. So far only First has seen fit to inform the passengers.

21 comments:

  1. Or Bluestar has been losing passengers to First and this new route is an attempt to improve their network.

    Will they increase their day riders too?

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  2. they have a new site solenttravelcard.com

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  3. Most likely the case that First are dreadful and have already given up the ghost. The new network is terrible and apart from a few services run empty, the growth targets (if they bother having any) must be being missed.

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  4. I don't think First are struggling and their new network seems to be a success. When I get the 3 as that stops about 2 minutes from my house it is often busy (albeit it is very often a single decker!)
    When I get the 1 it is still popular but not as busy as the 3, it is quite often a double decker - especially if I get the 0614.
    I think some more double deckers should be put on the 3 route though

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  5. What a bizarre article with all sorts of far fetched assumptions. If you look at what First have done locally with investment in a new multi-million depot, refresh of the local identity with new livery, new network introducing new routes and upping frequencies and running to new places is that really a sign of a business in trouble?

    Nationally First have announced they want to dispose of 10% of the bus business, that means they want to retain 90%. First have also announced the future direction of their business is urban bus - Southampton being one of the most densly populated urban areas outside of London. I would guess Southampton is very low down in the list of priorities to sell and is an area with loads of potentional, something both First and GoAhead want to exploit.

    Now lets look at why Bluestar might run to Townhill Park - new First network launched a few months with incursions into 'traditional' Solent Blue Line territories - Hedge End and Millbrook Road, new cheaper day ticket, Bluestar must be hurting so this is likely to be a strike back. Townhill Park is an odd choice, Unilink went there with the U9 hourly but that didn't last long despite all the hype, First run 9 buses per hour around Townhill, 3 times as many as what BS are offering.

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    1. First hardly took 'on' BS in Hedge End. BS long ago gave up Grange Park (and Moorgreen) and reduced frequency on the Botley route (to Southampton).
      The First X2 cannot be considered a competitor along Millbrook Road as this is the main road into the City with very little housing/passenger source. Why First would want a marginally quicker route from only parts of Millbrook Estate to City seems strange

      The comment re First taking on BS to Totton/Calmore relives days when First extended the Totton service to the College and met with fierce resistance from Marchwood Mways and was soon abondoned - interestingly this extension has just been reinstated

      Interesting times ahead

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  6. 'ex network planner'9 August 2012 at 02:17

    Very strange move. BlueStar could end up in trouble here. There were many more sensible ways of responding to First new network. As previous comment says, First are not going to give up Southampton, and a squeeze by First and Stagecoach from the North would be interesting! 5 buses currently wasted on First X2 will soon be running through Totton I think! Lots of fun to come!

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  7. The U9 had great potential,and research showed that passengers wanted more frequency as at the time, First were not as sharp as today. It got pulled as it was not part of the main contract won by BS,and they saw no value in it.

    BS are not known for their ability to run things reliably,and this new venture may stretch the matter too far.Watch out BS if First run up to Eastleigh,target Waterside,or go for the honeypot that is uni-link.

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  8. It's important to remember that the fate of First in Southampton will not be decided here, but at First's corporate HQ in Aberdeen. If it's doing badly, they'll want to get rid. If it's doing well, they could see selling it as a way of raising some of the cash that they desperately need at the moment. I personally feel that the local management have shown with April's changes what they can really do and that Aberdeen should have let them do it much much sooner.

    It will be indeed be intriguing to see how Bluestar do with the 16. Locally Go Ahead are seen as having some reliability problems, but I think the bigger corporate picture is worth bearing in mind as it does help explain what is unfolding here in Southampton now.

    First locally has great potential - Hedge End for example is theirs for the taking after a decade of neglect from Bluestar - but it really wouldn't surprise me if that potential is not reached unless ownership passes out of the hands of First.

    As to who might be interested in buying? The top two contenders must be Stagecoach and RATP, for reasons which I will go into in future posts.

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  9. Stagecoach please!!

    Also, further to the Solent Travelcard item, Velvet mentioned on Facebook that the prices went up.

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  10. Is idle speculation over who hypothetically may or may not want to buy First in Southampton really desirable on a public forum unless the 'for sale' sign goes up over Empress Road? You are after all hypothesising over people's livelihoods, what colour the bus is painted is fairly irrelevant at this stage.

    However if you really want to persist with the idle speculation then you may want to consider this - First want to raise money for two reasons, pay down some debt (sensible in this day and age) and to raise capital for future purchases. First made mistakes over a decade ago buying some largely rural businesses that were over valued and never going to generate great returns, they're the businesses probably up for disposal. In return they have publicly stated the future is urban bus and looking for potential aquisitions so who's to say the sales elsewhere may fund acquisitions in south Hampshire?

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  11. I wouldn't jump to conclusions about First, some surprises to come..................

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  12. If BlueStar does this right the route could be a success. What they need to do is target the customers in the Townhill Area. Meggeson Avenue has about 300 properties in it and about another 100 in Forest Hills, not to mention the side roads off them. What they need to do is send out leaflets to people living in that area and introduce the service with a dicsount fare for the first week or so, say £1 single £1.50 return. And also run a DIFFERENT route to First 7, as said before the best route, after Cobden Bridge go via Cobden Avenue, Mousehole Lane, then loop round Witts Hill, Woodmill Lane, Forest Hills Drive, Meggeson Avenue, Townhill Way, Big Cheese Roundabout, Mousehole Lane back to Cobden Avenue, and between Portswood and City go via either Winn Road/Westwood Road or Lodge Road

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  13. But if BlueStar does it wrong and say copy Firsts 7, it could be a total failure.
    Lets not forget the BlueStar 15 from Bitterne to Weston which was the same as First 5E and 6 from many moons ago (yes I know first stopped the service and BlueStar started it as the 15). How long did that service last? Not long if I remember correctly

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  14. Soon to retire Busman13 August 2012 at 02:04

    Bluestar has all new management............who know nothing about the area! Wrong area to expand.....but it will be fun to watch the battle. Think most of the ex Olympics vehicles are headed for a bus war in Southampton.

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  15. What surprises are coming? Please tell me :)

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  16. The 15 from Bitterne to Weston was a council tender to replace part of the old First 6 route following grumbles from residents. Unsurprisingly no one used it so it was pulled off but not after it had wasted a few thousands of council money running an empty bus around for a few months.

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  17. If you think this is a mess. You should see what is going on with the 46 Bus From Winchester to the General. Velvet have pulled out after just two months.

    HCC by giving Velvet half the route and setting up a conflict situation with both Stagecoach and the college have wrecked a route were all parties were happly working together up to June.

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    1. The council are obsessed with providing a service to Hospitals when the reality is they are NOT used unless they run frequently.

      One problem with this service was it was not used for local journeys (eg Soton to Hospital) as First run frequent busses and are what the passenger expects to see - Who knew the route the 46 took in this area?
      The 46 was also a mishmash of routes on different days trying to do lots of things - most of them badly.

      I used to drive the route for Stagecoach and most passengers on the early bus were commuters from the Soton/Shirley area to Hursley and beyond. For the council to cut this bus and all others City/Hospital was strange

      The route also catered for passengers from Upton Crescent or Chilworth (certain journeys) and these were cut before Velvet took over leaving a service and timings which achieved very little

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  18. Oh dear.Velvet will be losing friends in the HCC again.Last time they did this sudden pull-out move after winning a contract it was on the Ringwood service,and miffed quite a few passengers and councillors.

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    1. Did Velvet pull out or was the contract terminated by HCC?

      Ringwood to Southampton has not been a succesful route over the past 50 years with the possible exception of the X1,X2,27 routes. With limited funding the council put together the best they can afford - but this is often not want the customer wants. True Velvet carried passengers on the route but almost exclusively on one return journey and the majority of these were OAP passes

      The councils really need to decide what they want from subsidised public transport - is it a big bus for the odd passenger at a great expense per pass journey or continue and expand the taxi bus services

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