It isn't, it's a Sunday.
Here are the new timetables: 7, 8, 9, 13. Only minor changes.
More interestingly, First announce that all of their Southampton routes will run under the City Reds brand. Presumably the X4/X5 will remain under the Solent Rangers brand, run from the Fareham depot.
This isn't as unusual as it may seem. Bluestar started off as a premium sub-brand of Solent Blue Line, that was then extended to the whole network. The same in Bournemouth, where More was once only applied to premium Wilts & Dorset routes, while More is now the name for Go South Coast's whole network across Bournemouth & Poole.
What it does however is make First's Southampton operations easier to split off from the rest of First, especially now that the costly travel shop in Pound Tree Road has been closed.
How likely is that to happen?
Ah, that likely. Passengers in East Anglia, dominated by First, are already worried. For us in the South though, what could it mean?
Go Ahead wouldn't be able to buy on competition grounds and of the other big groups, only Stagecoach have operations nearby onto which Southampton could be tagged. RATP, the Parisian regional transport authority and owner of Yellow Buses in Bournemouth, can't be ruled out, but they seem to have their work cut out in Bournemouth - they've just reversed an entire network revamp just over a year after it was introduced.
The other option is another arm of the French state: Transdev. They have extensive operations in Lancashire and Yorkshire, currently run by no other than Alex Hornby, who used to run Solent Blue Line. I wonder whether he's feeling a little homesick? Would there be enough money to be made pour les taxpayeurs de France?
Rolling out the CITYREDS branding to the other routes is not a decision, in my opinion, designed to make the sale of the Southampton operations more or less likely - it's just a sensible allocation of the already branded buses following the failed expansion into Thornhill.
ReplyDeleteIt does weaken the CITYREDS brand a little though as the buses were originally designated for the super high frequency routes in the City.
The alternatives for First were either:
A: Keep running the CITYREDS branded Streetlites on non-CITYREDS routes and hope the public don't notice; or
B: Repaint the Streetlites into corporate livery - a costly and unnecessary move.
All of the big transport groups are facing extreme financial pressure - as evidenced by the failed takeover attempt of First Group and the recent closures of the King's Lynn and Fort William operations by Stagecoach Group.
With the intense competition that First's operation faces in Southampton, and the large amount of investment required to compete with Go-Ahead, it's unlikely that a buyer will be found.
I can see two possible futures for Southampton's bus network:
Option A: Go-Ahead start competing heavily in Woolston (the last part of Southampton where First dominate), hitting First's bottom line hard. This could force First into retreating from Southampton altogether and simply closing the depot.
The buses could be transferred elsewhere, the depot sold (could even be bought by Go-Ahead) and some routes could be sold onto other operators (6 & 8 to Xelabus?)
Option B: The network as a whole settles down, First continue to plough their trade and build up the profitability of their operation without taking the fight to Go-Ahead (again). Let's face it, fierce competition like we've seen recently isn't a cheap option for either operator!
As for which option is most likely, I'll let you make up your minds about that!
In a debate largely fuelled by wild speculation and mad conspiracy theories, this is by far the most sensible analysis I’ve seen.
DeleteI have no doubt that the decision to rebrand the non-CityRed routes is nothing other than a pragmatic response to the situation in which they find themselves. Given that probably 95 per cent or more of the revenue is on the original Red routes, that’s where the management team will focus its attention - not on trying to maintain a separate non-branded fleet for the peripheral stuff round the edges. Yes there is some dilution of the brand but they’ll live with that.
The idea that you would brand a fleet just so it was easier to sell makes no sense to me at all (as someone who has been involved in a variety of similar deals over 25 years in the industry). Corporate takeovers are usually pretty clinical processes based on the financial value of assets and goodwill (the latter in the accounting sense) and what colour the buses are painted rarely has a value on the balance sheet. In any event, a new buyer normally wants to do their own thing anyway and the cost of repainting and rebranding is small beer in the context of a deal involving £millions of assets.
Agreed this is a sensible analysis - I'm unsure how Bluestar could compete in Woolston though, as I believe they are pretty much at full capacity at Totton and Eastleigh, so they would have to open a new depot. I like the suggestion about the purchase of the depot itself, which I have been thinking is a possibilty. Just the depot shouldn't be a problem?
DeleteThank you both for your kind words!
DeleteI too struggle to see how Go-Ahead could find the capacity to compete with First on the Woolston corridor. Though they've found ways of coping with an ever-expanding Poole depot - such as taking over part of a nearby park and ride site for bus parking.
Re-opening the Fawley outstation might be one option for freeing up space at Totton? Though they'd still need to increase the cleaning, fuelling and mechanical capacity of the depot for the increased allocation.
In terms of vehicles, the upcoming arrival of MMCs for the Unilink contract could allow the displacement of the current Enviro 400s on to routes 17 and 18 - freeing up several Enviro 200 MMCs & Citaros which could be retained for use on any new services and allow the older Citaros to be sold on.
Even with all of that, there's still the issue of finding people to drive the damn things. Given there's a national and local shortage of available drivers, this could prove very difficult!
I've no doubt though that Bluestar could turn an impressive profit from the Woolston corridor if they were to start operating more journeys - even with extensive competition from First.
Blue Star will have plenty of buses from their new orders later in the year, plenty of space from their recently extended yard at Eastleigh and I understand that they have a waiting list of over 30 drivers just waiting to come across from First! Plans are rumoured to be well advanced to extend their operations to the east of town. Whenever they are ready to put First to bed, they seem prepared to do so. Why would they consider paying for it or having a competition question hanging over them? As someone else said recently, why else have they let Xela and Wheelers develop?
DeleteYes and if jc is elected in dosent he want to give millenials free bus travel which would cripple the industry even more.
ReplyDeleteOnly in areas that accept franchising, not nationally. No plans for franchising here. Yet.
DeleteWhile it may be easy to say which option for Southampton seems to most likely, one paragraph in the online article from First caught my attention. Route 6 to Hamble is having 'newly branded buses' coming very soon. Now this might just be a few City Red StreetLites with 'route 6' plastered down the side, but would a company who may be thinking about pulling out, want to go through the trouble of spending money branding a bus service which only runs every 30 mins, potentially for a few months. I have a theory on what will happen to Southampton's bus network in the coming months, but that has almost thrown a spanner in the works...
ReplyDeleteim not too suprised that bluestar cant buy first southampton look what happend in preston when stagecoach brought preston bus they were told to sell and was sold to rotala
ReplyDeleteThe confusing one for me is the “City Red 8” - Hedge End isn’t in the City? A time least all the other destintions are in the SO1_ postcodes?
ReplyDeleteI get the feeling First are trying to brand as much of their areas as possible, ready for potential sales in the future? Either way, it does sort of make sense for all routes to run under the City Red, except for the 6 and 8 routes, where they should not be classed as a city route, because they run outside of the city, like the Solent Ranger X4 & X5 are.
ReplyDeleteWith the situation in Southampton, First have been declining for years as they've been badly beaten by Bluestar IMHO. I would expect them to do what they did in Plymouth and to sell the Southampton Operations to Stagecoach, therefore satisfying the competition authorities. Stagecoach would then likely review the operations and roll back their network accordingly.
I would then expect the Portsmouth operations to remain unaffected, unless Stagecoach are trumping them there too? In that case, then that area *might* get sold to Bluestar and again, they'd review it and do whatever they feel is best and I'd expect the Solent Ranger buses to be axed, or at least the Southampton-Portsmouth route anyway...
Down here in Cornwall, we've gone from a very corporate First Devon & Cornwall image, based in Plymouth, to simply First Kernow, based in Camborne, with some local emphasis after they sold their Devon operations. Now fast forward a few years since the sale, they are now running various brands of buses; Cornwall by Kernow (green), Mousehole (pink), Tinner (red), Atlantic (light blue) and University (dark blue). This could be because they now have the monopoly and have had grants, etc. to get some new buses, or it could be that they are planning to sell off parts of their network separately. Either way, it's about time too if you ask me, since all we've had down here is rejects from other parts of the UK, ironically from Southampton, so I've really missed a modern and reliable bus service since relocating from the city in 2008!
At last today the Daily Echo reported on the closure of First`s travel shop in Southampton.The paper said that First declined to comment on it.
ReplyDeleteFirst seem to be loosing loads of passengers on their route 3 to Bluestar 17,from what I`ve seen lately so probably need to make even more savings.
DeleteI think you may mean losing?
DeleteIt's not just the 17 that is taking them, it's the 7 along Lordshill Way too. Every way they turn, First look under pressure!
Please explain. How can a company be so poor that a half-hourly service is taking passengers from a service every 7-8 minutes?
DeleteAs a regular passenger on the 3, the above posts are nonsense. The 3 carries well at most times of the day, though like all routes less so in the evenings. Must be a slow day in the GSC marketing department, again! Maybe they would better employed trying to figure out how to run the 18 reliably, rather than 2 buses together every 15 minutes. The answer is simple; regulate the service like First do the 3!
DeleteI have seen quite a lot of 3 buses bunching up too,it will happen when a service runs every 7/8 mins.
DeleteFree pass holders staff/enct tend to jump on firstbus that comes along as they have no loyalty as they just want to get to were there going as soon as poss.im lucky to have a staff/spouse pass for 1 of the groups which under local agreements with other operators allows me free travel on gsc or fhad. If im in soton and use a bus i will be 1 to put my statement into pratice.
DeleteDear Anon at 09:49 on 7 May. We’ve got much better things to do than talk badly about First on a bus blog.
DeleteTBH I tend to take comments like those of the last posters with a degree of skepticism. One observation, at one spot, at one time of day is taken to be true for all the service,
ReplyDeleteTry different spots at various times and days.
DeleteWasent the beeching report alledgedly done by going to a station at quietest time of the day
DeleteYrs ago I recall seeing 3 number 3's turn into Romsey Rd from Winchester Rd in a row, with a fourth 3 a few car lengths behind! As for the 2's...I call them Desmond's as in Tutu... often see two 2's together!
ReplyDeleteThe operation of first 3 and Bluestar 18 is quite similar. Both being high frequency along busy roads suffer the same problem most of the day in bunching up.Even without a traffic problem,if one or the other gets busy with passengers boarding and alighting,the following bus tends to catch up.Not a lot I suspect can be done about this.No ideal solution to this.
ReplyDeleteIf I was in charge of Southern Vectis I would terminate ALL buses in Carvel lane in Cowes and run double deckers,as single deckers aren`t much use in peak season.
ReplyDeleteHow will they serve passengers getting on/off the Red Jet though?
DeleteWell fortunately annon 19th May at oo13 you are not in charge of Southern Vectis-The present system seems to work quite well,as it's been in place for many years,although during certain times they have tried other alternatives,which don't seem to work-Stick to bus spotting and not trying bus operators how to run things.
DeleteThe Carvel Lane stop is just around the corner from the Red Jet terminal so no big deal for passengers.
DeleteTotally agree with Anon at 21:12.
DeleteIt may be just around the corner but you cannot see it. People arriving in an unfamiliar place or who are in a hurry will generally not go looking for a bus if it is not immediately in front of them, they will just use a taxi which is.
DeleteThe Red Jet terminal must be the busiest point of entry onto the island for foot passengers and I definitely think buses need to serve it.
Carvel Lane stop just around the corner ... no big deal ... obviously someone who has never been to Cowes when it is even moderately busy or relies on Google maps for their "information". The Red Jet terminal exit is cramped and full of passengers with bulky "hand" baggage standing around in a position calculated for the maximum inconvenience to other ex-passengers. Then you have to negotiate the ephemera of street cafes and their patrons. The direct route is up a steep hill, that and its alternatives are narrow, festooned with bollards and restricted visibility crossing points through which car drivers make their way, trying to avoid head-on collisions and idiotic pedestrians without a crumb of common sense or ability to read large road signs displayed in an attempt to enhance their safety. A frustrating experience and quite a challenge if you need a walking-stick to get anywhere.
DeleteThursday 31 May - News websites confirm First are in finiancial trouble, down from over £150 Millon profit to over £300 Million loss in a year.
ReplyDeleteThough First's UK bus operations are one of the few divisions whose finances improved - their main problems seem to be in the US and, to a lesser extent, on some UK rail franchises.
DeleteMake of that what you will.
Indeed-Major changes at First group I suspect in the near future.
ReplyDelete